Wheat yields have been declining since long due to rising temperatures in India. But, #Don'tLookUp!

Wheat farm pic by Samuel Myles on Unsplash

V Nilesh | Hyderabad 

I recently watched Don't Look Up. I squirmed at Dr. Randall Mindy getting casually ignored by President Orlean as he informed her of a definitive extinction-level event. 

That's the reel. Reality is worse. Most world leaders acknowledge Climate Change but don't do anything about it. 

The daily news always seems like a glimpse into how humans will go bust. 

The latest in the series is declining wheat yields due to rising temperatures. 

It is one of the many climate crisis SOSs humans regularly receive and choose to ignore.

As I read the news regarding declining wheat yields, I was reminded of one of my unpublished stories from early 2017. 

It was based on a study published in Climatic Changes titled Global warming and local air pollution has reduced wheat yields in India by researchers from the Indian School of Business, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi Centre, and Indian Institute of Technology Delhi. 

For some absurd reason that I don't remember now, it wasn't published. 

It's still relevant, and I share it here. 

This is a to-the-point, condensed version. 

The Findings

The quantity of wheat harvested in a span of 28 years (1981–2009), was 5.2% lower than what it could have been. 

The lower harvest was due to rising temperatures and air pollution. 

That's more than 1 Billion Dollars worth of wheat that India lost to global warming and pollution. 

This data is an aggregate for 208 districts in India. 

These 208 districts account for more than 90 percent of wheat production in the country. 

Rising Temperatures

Rising temperatures don't mean just hotter days. They also mean hotter nights. 

Both are dangerous to wheat and many other food crops. 

The ISB, ISID, and IIT Delhi researchers point out:

In the 28-year study period, the maximum temperature in wheat-growing regions increased by 0.7 degrees Celsius, and the minimum temperature increased by 1 degree Celsius respectively.

Why is this scary?

According to the study, a 1 degree Celsius rise in the average daily maximum and minimum temperatures may lower the wheat yields by 2-4% each. 

More reasons to be scared 

The wheat yield loss due to the rise in temperatures was calculated at a whopping 16% in another study by IIT Delhi researchers.

The study Spatial Analysis of Yield Trends and Impact of Temperature for Wheat Crop Across Indian Districts was published in 2021 in the International Journal of Plant Production. The study period was 50 years, from 1966 to 2015. 

According to them, in 145 wheat-growing districts — covering around 77% of the wheat harvested area in India — a 1 degree Celsius rise in mean temperature caused a decline of 251 kg per hectare, which is a 16% loss in yield. 

Decreasing wheat yields due to increasing temperatures is bad for the food security of millions of Indians and people from other developing nations that rely on Indian wheat to feed their populations.

Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Indonesia were among the top-10 importers of Indian wheat in 2020-2021. 

Lately, even the developed nations have been hopeful of getting Indian wheat due to the war in Ukraine, one of the top wheat exporters in the world. 

As India decided to ban Indian wheat exports due to a downfall in production amid severe heatwaves, the G7 nations expressed their unhappiness. 

Let's hope that the situation improves in 2022. 

Ends/ 

Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: 96 Percent Marginal Farmers "Extremely Vulnerable"

 

Climate change is not just a global issue that deserves to be discussed only in fancy international summits and conferences. Its impact is local, especially the impact of climate change on agriculture, and it's going to affect the poorest the most.

According to a study conducted in Telangana, India, 96 percent Marginal farmers and 94 percent Small farmers are "Extremely Vulnerable" to the impacts of climate change. 

Also, 87 percent of Semi-medium farmers, 69 percent Medium farmers, and 26 percent Large farmers are Extremely Vulnerable to climate change, according to the study.

Marginal farmers are those who own less than 1 hectare(ha) farmland, Small farmers - 1.1ha to 2ha;  Semi-medium farmers - 2.1ha to 4 ha; Medium farmers - 4.1ha to 10 ha; Large farmers - 10ha and above.

The research paper containing findings of the study — Household Vulnerability to Climate Change and Identification of Target Beneficiaries to Implement Household-Specific Adaptation Strategies: A Quantitative Assessment —  has been published in the Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development (AJAD).  

The authors are Swamikannu Nedumaran, Ravi Nandi, Jyosthnaa Padmanabhan, Srigiri Srinivasa Reddy, Dakshina Murthy Kadiyala, and Shalander Kumar from International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Hyderabad, German Development Institute, Bonn, and Acharya NG Ranga Agricultural University.  

As part of the study, the researchers investigated the climate change vulnerability of 6,214 households in the drought-prone districts of Telangana state - Mahabubnagar, Wanaparthy, and Nagarkurnool. 

Of the 6,214 households, 9.74 percent were marginal farm households, 17.8 were small, 32.7 percent were semi-medium, 32.59 percent were medium, and 7.11 percent were large.

Overall, 79 percent of the 6,214 surveyed households are found to be "extremely vulnerable", 11.2 percent "moderately vulnerable", and 9.65 percent were "resilient" to climate change.

Courtesy: The research paper on 'Household Vulnerability to Climate Change and Identification of Target Beneficiaries to Implement Household-Specific Adaptation Strategies: A Quantitative Assessment', published in AJAD.

Five Principal Components Of Vulnerability

For assessing the vulnerability to climate change, the researchers considered five principal components - (1) access to irrigation; (2) credit access, landholding, and income from agriculture; (3) household size and income sources; (4) access to information and climate-smart adaptation practices; and (5) social capital.

The households were classified into three clusters based on the varying degrees of impact of climate change on them - Extremely vulnerable, Moderately vulnerable, and Resilient.

Regarding the households classified as Extremely vulnerable, the researchers point out, "These households had the least access to irrigation, credit facilities, and climate information; had a smaller household size and fewer income sources; and had adopted the fewest climate-smart adaptation practices. In this category, the proportion of irrigated area to the total landholding was low. Moreover, households in Cluster 1 (extremely vulnerable) had a smaller social network compared to resilient and moderately resilient household groups."

Impact Of Climate Change On Indian Agriculture

In 2013, the Hyderabad-based Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA) came out with the 'Atlas on Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change'.

To develop the atlas, the CRIDA researchers considered close to 40 indicators to quantify the three components of vulnerability to climate change — sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity — and developed a Vulnerability Index.

According to the atlas, of the then 572 districts in India, the vulnerability to climate change was 'Very high' (115 districts) or 'High' (115 districts) of nearly half of all the districts.  

The 'high' or 'very high' vulnerability was mainly due to a combination of the indicators - Projected decrease in July rainfall, Low Rainfall, Low groundwater availability, Projected increase in the number of drought years, Projected rise in minimum Temperature, High Net Sown Area and Low Net Irrigated Area.

What Needs To Be Done?

In their study, the ICRISAT, GDI, and ANGRAU researchers highlight three policy-level measures to combat the impact of climate change on agriculture :

Allocation of resources in the Leximin order

The researchers explain, "A Leximin rule entails redistribution to the most affected along some criterion as a matter of priority. After the needs of the most vulnerable have been met, attention is directed to redistributing to the next affected."

They further explain, "Ideally, policy formulation can target identified households, and enabling policies can be rolled out to enhance the adaptive capacity of said households based on the identified reasons for vulnerability for each of the categories. Consequently, this can increase the adoption of context-specific climate-smart adaptation technologies. Compared to a "one size fits all" approach, a tailored policy approach can potentially increase the resilience of households by enhancing their adaptive capacity." 

Improved extension services

The researchers mention, "Agricultural extension services should be improved to ensure that farmers receive climate information and information on climate-smart adaptation strategies. Given the paucity of agricultural extension personnel, providing group extension, or linking extension services through producer organizations or local farmer associations, can advance the transfer of information and technologies cost-effectively. The government should work with private entities and non-government organizations with proven extension models in public-private partnerships."

Improving low-cost technologies

According to the researchers, "There is a need to explore opportunities for donors to invest in low-cost infrastructure such as improved irrigation systems, improving credit access, and establishing more weather stations that can precisely predict weather conditions in a specific village or groups of villages."